Week 7 of Defensive Diagnosis, our weekly look at the NFL defenses most likely to get picked apart and the players who will do the picking. I ranked defenses by yards and points allowed through Week 6 (Fox Sports defense rankings) and checked that against this week’s lines from bet365 via Fox Sports and Covers, plus the CBS Sports injury list. Buffalo, Washington, Jacksonville and the Chargers are on bye, so they are out. Lines can move before kickoff. Last week’s column is here.
🦁 1. Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET)
The situation: Detroit allows 404.4 yards a game, the most in the league, and 297.4 of them through the air, also the most. Opponents convert 50.7% of third downs and score 29.6 points a game, per the Fox rankings. The Lions are 3-2 and coming off their bye. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are still on the PUP list and Avonte Maddox is on injured reserve, per CBS Sports. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites with a 52.5 total.
Scheme: Kelvin Sheppard is in his second year as coordinator, per Roundtable. FantasyNerds describes a base 4-3 with man-heavy Cover 1 looks and blitzes, and another FantasyNerds piece says Detroit planned to lean on zone and nickel more this year.
Who benefits: Jordan Love threw for 276 yards against Dallas, and Matthew Golden caught 6 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets in that box score. Christian Watson is the deep threat after his 6-catch, 143-yard game in Week 5, and tight end Tucker Kraft saw 8 targets. Jayden Reed is on injured reserve, per CBS. The Packers backfield is unsettled, since MarShawn Lloyd left the Dallas game and has no confirmed Week 7 status, per Football Nation.
⚜️ 2. New Orleans Saints (vs. Pittsburgh, Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET in Paris)
The situation: New Orleans is 2-4 and allows 29.7 points and 377.7 yards a game, with 21 touchdowns allowed and 138.0 rushing yards a game (Fox rankings). The Saints beat the Giants 34-27 last week, but New York got 12 catches and 165 yards from Malik Nabers and 6 catches and 99 yards from Isaiah Likely. Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry left that game with a migraine and safety Tyler Nubin was injured, per Fox Sports. The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites with a 44.5 total.
Scheme: Brandon Staley runs the defense, per the Steelers’ opponent preview. MatchQuarters found that last season about 63% of Saints coverage calls were split-field zone shells, against a league average near 40%, with man coverage on only about 4% of base-defense calls. Roundtable describes the same two-high, light-box approach this year. That makes New Orleans a zone-first defense.
Who benefits: D.K. Metcalf caught 11 passes for 93 yards on 15 targets and Germie Bernard caught 11 for 87 and a touchdown in the Steelers’ overtime win over Tampa Bay. My read is that both work the intermediate zones this scheme concedes. Aaron Rodgers threw 49 times last week, so volume is there. Jaylen Warren led the backfield with 14 carries and 2 catches.
🤠 3. Dallas Cowboys (at Philadelphia, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET)
The situation: Dallas is 2-4 and allows 382.5 yards a game, 30th in the league, with the worst third-down rate (54.7%) and the most rushing yards allowed (149.8 a game) in the Fox rankings. Last week the Cowboys held Green Bay to 57 rushing yards, but the Packers converted 11 of 18 third downs, per Fox Sports. Linebacker Dee Winters is doubtful with an Achilles injury, and Demarvion Overshown and cornerback Decobie Durant are questionable, per CBS. The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites with a 44.5 total, which puts the Eagles near 20 points.
Scheme: Christian Parker, who came over from Philadelphia’s staff under Vic Fangio, took over as coordinator after Dallas fired Matt Eberflus in January. MatchQuarters calls it a Fangio-adjacent defense built on rotational split-field coverage, and Blogging The Boys expects five-man fronts. I could not find a published man/zone split for Dallas this season, so I am not claiming one.
Who benefits: Philadelphia is thin. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and Tanner McKee threw 45 times against Carolina, per the box score. DeVonta Smith (7 catches, 75 yards, a touchdown) and Dallas Goedert (6 catches, 61 yards) are the targets to trust. Dameon Pierce carried 12 times for 35 yards and a score. Saquon Barkley sat out Week 6 with a hamstring injury, so check his status before Monday. This is a volume play more than a ceiling play.
🏴☠️ 4. Las Vegas Raiders (vs. L.A. Rams, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET)
The situation: Las Vegas is 3-3 and has lost three straight. It allows 371.7 yards (28th) and 27.0 points a game, including 134.3 rushing yards, per the Fox rankings. Buffalo beat the Raiders 33-30 last week behind Josh Allen’s 255 yards and two touchdowns and James Cook’s 95 yards and a score, per the box score. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites with a 47.5 total.
Scheme: Rob Leonard is a first-year coordinator, per KOLD and the Raiders’ own site. He moved the base defense to a 3-4 from the 4-3 used under Patrick Graham, per ABC7. Leonard describes a multiple defense and has said “no scheme will save you in this league.” I could not confirm a man or zone lean, so treat the coverage label as unconfirmed.
Who benefits: Matthew Stafford went 25-of-33 for 222 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona, and Puka Nacua caught 6 passes for 80 yards, per the box score. Davante Adams left that game with a knee injury and is out 6 to 10 weeks, per Fox Sports, which pushes more targets to Nacua. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum split the carries, and tight end Colby Parkinson caught the game-tying touchdown. Williams is the better bet for a short-yardage score.
🏜️ 5. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Denver, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET)
The situation: Arizona is 2-4 and has allowed 29.7 points a game and a league-high 23 touchdowns, per the Fox rankings. The Cardinals beat the Rams 18-16 last week and held them to 286 yards, but they had allowed 148 points in their previous four games, per Fox Sports. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5 at Covers and 43.5 at Fox. Treat this one as low confidence, because Denver’s offense scored 17 points in overtime against Seattle.
Scheme: Nick Rallis is in his fourth season as coordinator under new head coach Mike LaFleur, per Arizona Cardinals On SI. Last October, the team’s own site noted that only the Chargers had played more Cover 4 snaps, and Rallis said the defense needs a balance of man and zone. I could not find a current-season coverage split.
Who benefits: Per the box score, J.K. Dobbins carried 17 times for 41 yards and a touchdown, and RJ Harvey ran for a score and caught 3 passes for 31 yards. Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton are upside plays only, since Bo Nix threw for 107 yards. My read is that Harvey, with short catches against a Cover 4 look, has the clearest path.
Start-With-Confidence Cheat Sheet
| Defense | Opponent | Coordinator / Scheme | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | vs. Packers | Kelvin Sheppard / base 4-3, man-heavy with more zone | Jordan Love, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft |
| Saints | vs. Steelers (Paris) | Brandon Staley / two-high zone | D.K. Metcalf, Germie Bernard, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Rodgers |
| Cowboys | at Eagles (MNF) | Christian Parker / split-field, five-man fronts | DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Dameon Pierce |
| Raiders | vs. Rams | Rob Leonard / 3-4 base, coverage lean unconfirmed | Puka Nacua, Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Colby Parkinson |
| Cardinals | vs. Broncos | Nick Rallis / Cover 4 and man mix (low confidence) | RJ Harvey, J.K. Dobbins, Jaylen Waddle |
No two of the five play each other this week. Cowboys at Eagles comes closest, since both rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed, but Philadelphia allows 22.8 points a game, so it just missed the cut. Check the FFD Injury Report before kickoff.
About Defensive Diagnosis
Defensive Diagnosis is a weekly Fantasy Football Doctor column. Every Tuesday it ranks the five NFL defenses in the worst shape for that week’s slate, names the coordinator and scheme, and lists the offensive players best placed to exploit them. Check back next Tuesday for Week 8.
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