Five NFL defenses are the softest targets on the Week 9 slate. I ranked them by passer rating allowed on the NFL.com team pass-defense table and by Sportsnaut’s Week 9 defense rankings, then checked the lines on Covers and several sportsbook pages. The Steelers and Titans are on bye. Lines and injuries below are Tuesday snapshots, and they will move before kickoff.
Double-exploit game: Cowboys at Colts. Both defenses made the list, and the total sits between 51.5 and 52.5. The Eagles, Saints, Bills and Jets were the closest misses. Last week’s list is in Defensive Diagnosis: Week 8.
🤠 1. Dallas Cowboys (at Indianapolis)
The situation: Sportsnaut ranks Dallas 32nd, last in the league, and the Cowboys allow a 102.8 passer rating, fourth worst on NFL.com. Dallas is a slight favorite: DraftKings has them at -1.5 with a 52.5 total (StatSniper), and Covers lists a larger number. Treat this as a coin-flip shootout.
Scheme: Christian Parker is in his first year as a defensive coordinator. He told Footballguys Dallas will be multiple, mixing a base 3-4, 4-3 spacing and a 4-2-5 nickel, and the look changes week to week. Neither source publishes a man-versus-zone split, so I am not claiming one.
Who benefits: Jonathan Taylor has 587 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on ESPN’s Colts team page. Josh Downs leads Indianapolis with 307 receiving yards, and tight end Tyler Warren has 2 touchdowns. Alec Pierce is on injured reserve. Check Wednesday’s practice report before locking in Downs.
🐴 2. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Dallas)
The situation: Sportsnaut ranks the Colts 30th and says they allowed 6.9 yards per play in Week 8. They allow a 102.6 passer rating, sixth worst on NFL.com.
Scheme: Lou Anarumo is in his second year as coordinator and runs what Sports Illustrated calls a multiple defense. When the Colts hired him, they said he mixes man and zone and uses two-high safety shells. I could not confirm this season’s coverage split, so treat it as a mix.
Who benefits: CeeDee Lamb has 651 yards and 6 touchdowns, and Javonte Williams has 472 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, both per ESPN’s Cowboys team page. Dak Prescott has 13 touchdowns against 5 interceptions.
🐬 3. Miami Dolphins (vs. Detroit)
The situation: Miami has the worst passer rating allowed in the league at 119.5, with 16 touchdown passes allowed. Sportsnaut ranks the Dolphins 29th and notes New England scored 21 points on three second-half possessions last week. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite with a 47.5 total on DraftKings and SportsBrackets. Covers has the Lions at -7.5.
Scheme: Jeff Hafley is the head coach and Sean Duggan is the coordinator, according to Footballguys, with a base 4-2-5. Hafley’s 2024 Packers defense raised its Cover-2 rate to 19.4% per PFF. That is 2024 Packers data, and I could not find this year’s man-versus-zone numbers.
Who benefits: On ESPN’s Lions page, Jared Goff has 1,788 passing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs has 620 rushing yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown has 525 receiving yards. Start all three unless Wednesday’s report says otherwise.
🌵 4. Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle)
The situation: Arizona allows a 110.4 passer rating, second worst on NFL.com, and Sportsnaut ranks the Cardinals 31st. Seattle is a double-digit favorite: Covers shows -10.5 with a 44.5 total, and an earlier SportsBrackets list had -13.5.
Scheme: Nick Rallis calls the defense from a base 3-4. Fantasy Alarm describes the secondary as a two-high zone mix of Cover-2 and Cover-3. MatchQuarters confirms the 3-4 and that Rallis was retained, but its coverage breakdown is paywalled.
Who benefits: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 867 yards and 8 touchdowns on 58 catches. Sam Darnold has 1,290 yards and 8 touchdowns, and Cooper Kupp has 199 yards, all per ESPN’s Seahawks page. A blowout can cut a passing game short, so Smith-Njigba is the safe start and Darnold is the one to watch.
🏴☠️ 5. Las Vegas Raiders (at San Francisco)
The situation: The Raiders allow a 103.2 passer rating, third worst on NFL.com, with 18 touchdown passes allowed. Sportsnaut ranks them 28th and says they gave up about 252 passing yards and 162 rushing yards a game over their last six. San Francisco is a 10-point favorite with a 51.5 total on Action Network, and Covers has -9.5.
Scheme: Rob Leonard is a first-year coordinator, and head coach Klint Kubiak said he sees a base 3-4 team (Sports Illustrated, Feb. 26). Neither report covers coverage tendencies, and I could not confirm them.
Who benefits: On ESPN’s 49ers page, Brock Purdy has 1,748 yards and 15 touchdowns, George Kittle has 425 receiving yards and Christian McCaffrey has 389 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. McCaffrey has a mild hamstring strain and Kyle Shanahan was optimistic he would play, so check Wednesday’s practice report. Tight end Jake Tonges and receiver De’Zhaun Stribling are out per Action Network.
Start-With-Confidence Cheat Sheet
| Defense | Opponent | Line (Tuesday) | Scheme | Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | at Colts | DAL -1.5, 52.5 | Multiple, Christian Parker (man/zone split unconfirmed) | Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren |
| Colts | vs. Cowboys | IND +1.5, 52.5 | Multiple, Lou Anarumo (man/zone mix) | CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Dak Prescott |
| Dolphins | vs. Lions | DET -6.5, 47.5 | Base 4-2-5, Sean Duggan (coverage unconfirmed) | Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff |
| Cardinals | at Seahawks | SEA -10.5, 44.5 | 3-4, two-high zone, Nick Rallis | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp |
| Raiders | at 49ers | SF -10, 51.5 | Base 3-4, Rob Leonard (coverage unconfirmed) | Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey (if he practices) |
About Defensive Diagnosis
Defensive Diagnosis runs every Tuesday during the season. Earlier installments are here: Week 8 and Week 7. Spreads differ by book, and player statuses may change after Wednesday’s practice reports.
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