Five NFL defenses are the softest targets on the Week 10 slate. I ranked them by combining Sportsnaut’s Week 10 defense rankings with passer rating allowed on the NFL.com team pass-defense table, then checked lines on Covers and Fox Sports. The Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are on bye. The Jets, Titans and Saints were the closest misses. Lines are from Nov. 8 and 9 and will move, and the two books differ by a point or so, so I show both.

Double-exploit game: Dolphins at Colts. Both defenses made the list. The total is only 40.5 to 41.5, so expect a low-scoring game where touches matter more than big plays. Last week’s list is in Defensive Diagnosis: Week 9.

🐴 1. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami)

The situation: Sportsnaut ranks the Colts 31st. NFL.com shows a 104.1 passer rating allowed, third worst, with 16 touchdown passes. Indianapolis gave up 74 points in its first two games, according to Pro Football Rumors. The Colts are 2.5-point favorites at home, with a total of 40.5 on Covers and 41.5 on Fox.

Scheme: Lou Anarumo is still the coordinator. Head coach Shane Steichen said “I have confidence in Lou” in September, per Pro Football Rumors. The Indianapolis Star describes a plan built on man-to-man coverage, while The IDP Show projects 71.5% zone from past play-calling data. I could not confirm this season’s actual split, so treat it as a mix.

Who benefits: On ESPN’s Dolphins page, Ollie Gordon II has 408 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Malik Willis has 1,268 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 225 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Malik Washington leads the receivers with 329 yards. Miami’s offense is thin, so Gordon and Willis are the plays and the receivers are depth.

🏴‍☠️ 2. Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Seattle)

The situation: Sportsnaut ranks the Raiders 32nd, last in the league. NFL.com has them fourth worst at 103.6 passer rating allowed, and their 20 touchdown passes allowed are the most of the five teams here. Seattle is a 3 to 3.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5 to 43.5. Fantasy Edge lists Seattle’s quarterback, running back and tight end as attack spots against Las Vegas.

Scheme: Rob Leonard is a first-year coordinator. Head coach Klint Kubiak said the base is a 3-4. In Week 1 the Raiders leaned on Cover 3 with a post-snap safety swap, and The IDP Show projects 82.8% zone. Both point to a zone-heavy defense.

Who benefits: On ESPN’s Seahawks page, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 1,036 yards and 9 touchdowns on 71 catches, and tight end AJ Barner has 210 yards. Sam Darnold has 1,478 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Yahoo reports he missed Week 9 with a quad injury. Start Smith-Njigba, and check Darnold’s practice reports before trusting him.

🌵 3. Arizona Cardinals (vs. L.A. Rams)

The situation: Sportsnaut ranks Arizona 29th. NFL.com has the Cardinals second worst at 108.9 passer rating allowed, with 19 touchdown passes. The Rams are 7 to 7.5-point favorites with a total of 44.5 to 45.5.

Scheme: Nick Rallis was retained as coordinator under new head coach Mike LaFleur. Fantasy Alarm lists a 3-4 base with a two-high zone mix of Cover-2 and Cover-3, and The IDP Show projects 80.9% zone.

Who benefits: On ESPN’s Rams page, Matthew Stafford has 2,146 yards and 15 touchdowns, Kyren Williams has 548 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, and tight end Tyler Higbee has 274 receiving yards. Puka Nacua hurt his knee late in Week 9, and Yahoo reports he is likely headed to injured reserve. ESPN’s sources said the Rams believe his ACL is intact. Davante Adams has 480 yards and 4 touchdowns, but one report has him out with a hamstring injury, which I could not confirm, so check his status before Sunday.

🐬 4. Miami Dolphins (at Indianapolis)

The situation: Miami allows the worst passer rating in the league at 114.0, with 16 touchdown passes, per NFL.com. Sportsnaut ranks the Dolphins 28th. The Game Haus has Miami 29th among fantasy defenses at 3.1 points per game. The Colts are 2.5-point home favorites.

Scheme: Jeff Hafley is the head coach and Sean Duggan is the coordinator, with a base 4-2-5, according to Footballguys. The same piece says Hafley still has a hand in the defense. The IDP Show projects 81% zone from past data, and I could not find a confirmed 2026 coverage split.

Who benefits: On ESPN’s Colts page, Jonathan Taylor has 610 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, Josh Downs has 330 receiving yards and Keenan Allen has 325. The Colts were expected to trade Taylor before the 4 p.m. ET deadline on Nov. 10, per Pro Football Talk, which would take him out of this game. Downs and Allen are the safer starts if he moves.

🤠 5. Dallas Cowboys (vs. San Francisco)

The situation: Sportsnaut ranks Dallas 30th. NFL.com has the Cowboys eighth worst at 99.1 passer rating allowed, with 16 touchdown passes, so the pass defense is the weakest of the five on that measure. The 49ers are 4.5-point favorites and the 55.5 total is the highest on the slate on both Covers and Fox.

Scheme: Christian Parker is in his first year as coordinator. He calls the base a 3-4 with 4-3 spacing and a 4-2-5 nickel, and he told DallasCowboys.com he will pick man or zone based on his cornerbacks. The IDP Show projects 73.6% zone.

Who benefits: On ESPN’s 49ers page, Christian McCaffrey has 389 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, George Kittle has 425 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, and Mike Evans has 420 yards. Brock Purdy was inactive in Week 9 with turf toe, and I could not confirm his Week 10 status. If he sits, Mac Jones starts and the receivers lose some shine.

Start-With-Confidence Cheat Sheet

About Defensive Diagnosis

Defensive Diagnosis runs every Tuesday during the season. Earlier installments are here: Week 9 and Week 8. Spreads differ by book, and player statuses may change after Wednesday’s practice reports.